Disclaimer:  This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

The following is my outlook forecast for the upcoming 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 11– 14
TOTAL HURRICANES :        5 – 6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS
NAMED STORMS:          1
HURRICANES:                0
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0

The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney

I had been following a wave that moved off Africa about 48 hours ago, and thought this was the one that models have been hinting at for the possibility of development.  That wave in question, has since lost a lot of its structure and has pretty much fallen apart.  The wave we are monitoring now, which was marked by the NHC yesterday, was not notable at the time of the other tropical wave.  The current wave however has become better defined.  The latest ASCAT pass missed this feature, so I have not been able to analyze the wind pattern.  The NHC currently designates a LOW (20%)probability for cyclone formation during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)


WEATHERNERDS AND WEATHER US GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


The wave is currently moving toward the west at approximately 15-20 mph.  Based on my analysis of current steering layers and forecast steering maps, this motion of west, to WNW should continue during the next 96-120 hours.  As this wave gets close to the Lesser Antilles, I anticipate a more WNW motion based on steering analysis.  Bear in mind, this can change depending on strength, and orientation of the subtropical ridge, as well as strength of the wave as in how much development may occur.

Based on analysis of the current model runs, the ECMWF and GFS both indicate development beginning in about 96 hours from 12Z.  The JMA (Japanese) model indicates a weak low of about 1010 mb.  The GFS was inline with the ECMWF at around 1002 – 1003 mb, however it is up to its shenanigans again on the 18Z run, indicating a 970 mb, 90 kt hurricane approaching the SEUS by day 11 (low confidence).  I will be utilizing mainly the ECMWF graphics, given that the GFS “monster” storm was a fluke, and the GFS 12Z run was fairly inline with the ECMWF.
ECMWF MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES 96 AND 120 HOURS


GFS 276 HOUR FORECAST

While I’m not buying a 90 kt hurricane, based on my analysis of the current wind shear forecast, 200 mb streamline pattern forecast, relative humidity forecast up to the 500 mb level, and PWAT (Precipitable WATer) forecast, the ingredients are forecast to be fairly favorable at or just after the 72 hour point in the forecast from 12Z.  The models indicate ample moisture in the vertical up to 500 mb, high PWAT values, a developing radial shear pattern, and an outflow pattern developing at 200 mb., albeit offset slight to the east of the system.  Although this is forecast to be slightly offset, the clockwise flow should be providing a northerly and westerly outflow channel.  This setup should allow for some slow development beginning in about 72 hours, and if it holds, we could see our next tropical depression within 96-120 hours.  The ECMWF EPS Cyclone probability forecast indicates a 55 – 65% probability of cyclone formation in the 72 – 120 hour period.
ECMWF 500 MB RH FORECAST

ECMWF PWAT FORECAST

ECMWF SHEAR FORECAST


ECMWF 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST