Disclaimer:  This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

The outlined maps you were used to seeing from my F5 DATA software, are no longer around and operational.  This means I have lost quite a bit of data to analyze but I will try to make the severe weather forecasts as accurate and understandable as possible.

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK CONVERSION TABLE FOR DAY 1 OUTLOOKS

Sorry I’m posting this so late.  New information came out as I was finishing my initial analysis, which changed some of the forecast indices and parameters.  Also, given the discrepancies between the NAM and HRRR forecast animations, I will be using only the one that matches closer to the SPC coverage outlines and parameters

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued an ENHANCED risk of severe thunderstorms THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX…

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST MS INTO CENTRAL AL…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and isolated damaging winds are expected through this evening from the Edwards Plateau into south central Texas. Damaging winds will be possible today from southeast Mississippi into central Alabama.
SPC DAY 1 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAPS (first image linked to current SPC outlook)

TORNADO PROBABILITY

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
HAIL PROBABILITY

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS PROBABILITY

Based on my analysis of the current outlook, CIPS forecast model, NAM model, HRRR model, and SPC SREF, information derived from forecast indices indicate all severe threats are probable.
SPC 13Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK TEXT
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Based on analysis of the mentioned models, forecast indices pertain to the ENHANCED / SLIGHT risk outlines over TX.  Based on analysis of forecast indices and soundings information, the strongest of the indices will remain pretty much over the forecast area for TX, with weakening occurring as daytime heating wanes.  Indices will become a little stronger over the MS/AL portion of the forecast area by early afternoon, continuing until near sunset.  Based on analysis of the indices, regarding instability, especially the moderately strong mid level lapse rates over the SLIGHT and ENHANCED outlines for TX, large to severe hail can be expected.  The greatest probability for tornado activity may lie within the risk areas over TX. Given some of the weaker indices, I am not expecting any isolated strong tornadoes at the moment, though this could change as the day wears on.  Tornado activity may also occur over the MS Valley (MS/AL) AND possibly within the MARGINAL risk area, even though forecast indices are projected weaker.  Mid level lapse rates are only expected to reach 6.0 – 6.5C, with weaker SCP and STP indices.  Thunderstorm activity is expected to be ongoing in the overnight hours for TX.  At the start of my analysis this morning, a radar detected tornado from KSJT was ongoing near Sonora.

The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning over the risk areas.
SBCAPE: 1500 – 2500 j/kg-1
MLCAPE: 1000 – 1500 j/kg-1
MUCAPE: 1000 – 1500 j/kg-1
SRH 0 -1 km: 100 – 200 m2/s2
SRH 0 -3 km: 100 – 250 m2/s2
SRH EFFECTIVE: 100 – 200 m2/s2
L. I.: -3 to -6
STP: 1 – 3
SCP: 2 – 12
0 -6 km SHEAR: 50 – 60 kts
EFF. SHEAR: 45 – 50 kts
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 7.0 – 7.5C
DEWPOINT: 61F – 70F
EHI: 1.6 – 2.3
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 50 – 52C
K INDEX: 28 – 33C

STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.

The following are the SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast maps from the NAM model.  Generally, the higher the values and brighter the color, indicates a greater probability of strong thunderstorm and tornadic activity over an area:
HRRR SCP FORECAST (7:00 a.m. – 6:00 p.m. CDT 15 MAR.)

HRRR STP FORECAST (7:00 a.m. – 6:00 p.m. CDT 15 MAR.)

Please use the following maps, which should update automatically, for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches.  You may have to refresh your browser, or click on the graphics.  I have provided the SPC homepage link below, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER
The following sites will explain most of the severe weather and tornado values listed above, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices

THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)