Disclaimer:  This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

The outlined maps you were used to seeing from my F5 DATA software, are no longer around and operational.  This means I have lost quite a bit of data to analyze but I will try to make the severe weather forecasts as accurate and understandable as possible.

I wasn’t going to update today, however there has been a change in the forecast, with an increase to the severe probability.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued a 30% risk of severe thunderstorms in the day 4 outlook: FOR THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS…

…SPC SUMMARY…
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Four Corners region on Monday, as strong southwest mid-level flow remains in place from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. Early in the day, an east-to-west boundary is forecast from northern Missouri eastward into the Ohio Valley, along which will likely focus elevated thunderstorm development from Monday morning into the afternoon. Large hail could occur with some of the more intense storms. The severe threat is expected to persist into the evening, and possibly into the overnight period as an MCS moves into the region from the west-southwest.

Further southwest, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place from northeast Texas into eastern Oklahoma and eastern Kansas, extending eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. A surface low is forecast to develop over the central Plains, as a 75 to 90 knot mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the southern Plains. As the nose of the jet moves over the moist and unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening, widespread severe weather is expected to occur. Strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates are forecast to be favorable for a large-hail threat with supercells across parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas eastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Tornadoes and wind damage will also be possible, especially as the low-level jet strengthens and an MCS organizes across the region during the evening. The MCS is expected to remain severe into the overnight period, moving eastward into the Mid Mississippi Valley.
SPC DAY 4 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAP (LINKED…CLICK IMAGE)

Based on my analysis of the current outlook and GFS global model, SPC SREF model, and CIPS guidance, it appears all severe threats may be possible for the DAY 4 forecast.  An MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) is forecast to move over the area on Monday.  With the forecast of strong deep layer shear, moderately steep mid level lapse rates, and strengthening LLJ (Low Level Jet), some significant hail cannot be ruled out at this time.  Tornadoes will also be in the risk, however I am not willing to rule in isolated strong tornadoes at this time, until I can analyze forecast indices on Monday, which will be more representative for that day.   The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning, however at the moment I’m a little skeptical, as in my past experience in forecasting severe weather, the GFS does not appear as accurate as the NAM 3km or HRRR models.  Unfortunately, neither of these 2 models go out far enough in the forecast.  The NAM 3km only goes out to 60 hours, and the HRRR out to 18 hours.  I will update on this again on Monday. The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning, and pertain to the 30% outline at the moment.  Bear in mind, indices recorded below are at the time of peak intensity.  Indices meanings can be accessed further on in the synopsis:
SBCAPE: 500 – 1250 j/kg-1
MLCAPE: 500 – 1000 j/kg-1
MUCAPE: 500 – 1250 j/kg-1
SRH 0 – 1km: 150 – 250 m2/s2
SRH 0 – 3km: 200 – 300 m2/s2
SRH EFFECTIVE: 100 – 300 m2/s2
L. I.: -2 to -6
STP: 1 to 2
SCP: 1 to 6
0 -6 km SHEAR: 65 – 70 kts
EFF. SHEAR: 50 – 60 kts
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 7.0 – 8.0C
DEWPOINT: 59F – 65F
EHI: 0.6 – 1.9
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 52 – 54
K INDEX: 28 – 35

STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.

The following sites will explain most of these values, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices

THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed weekend!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST